Every religious group in the country has seen its fertility rate fall, including the majority Hindu population and the Muslim, Christian, Sikh, Buddhist and Jain minority groups. Today, the average Indian woman is expected to have 2.0 children in her lifetime, a fertility rate that is higher than China’s (1.2) or the United States’ (1.6), but much lower than India’s in 1992 (3.4) or 1950 (5.9). The fertility rate in India is higher than in China and the U.S., but it has declined rapidly in recent decades. The share of Indians who are 65 and older is likely to remain under 20% until 2063 and will not approach 30% until 2100, under the UN’s medium variant projections. Adults ages 65 and older comprise only 7% of India’s population as of this year, compared with 14% in China and 18% in the U.S., according to the UN. ![]() The other two most populous countries in the world, China and the U.S., have rapidly aging populations – unlike India. By comparison, the median age is 38 in the United States and 39 in China. Looking at India’s age distribution another way, the country’s median age is 28. In fact, there are so many Indians in this age group that roughly one-in-five people globally who are under the age of 25 live in India. People under the age of 25 account for more than 40% of India’s population. The UN’s “low variant” scenario – in which the total fertility rate is projected to be 0.5 births below that of the medium variant scenario – forecasts that India’s population will decline beginning in 2047 and fall to 1 billion people by 2100. In the UN’s “high variant” scenario – in which the total fertility rate in India is projected to be 0.5 births per woman above that of the medium variant scenario – the country’s population would surpass 2 billion people by 2068. Under the UN’s “ medium variant” projection, a middle-of-the-road estimate, India’s population will surpass 1.5 billion people by the end of this decade and will continue to slowly increase until 2064, when it will peak at 1.7 billion people. ![]() China, too, has more than 1.4 billion people, but while China’s population is declining, India’s continues to grow. The exact size of the country’s population is not easily known, given that India has not conducted a census since 2011, but it is estimated to have more than 1.4 billion people – greater than the entire population of Europe (744 million) or the Americas (1.04 billion). India’s population has grown by more than 1 billion people since 1950, the year the UN population data begins. Other sources of information for this analysis are available through the links included in the text. The “low” and “high” scenarios make different assumptions about fertility: In the high scenario, total fertility is 0.5 births above the total fertility in the medium scenario in the low scenario, it is 0.5 births below the medium scenario. The “medium scenario” projection is the median of many thousands of simulations. Data on migration is primarily from the United Nations Population Division.īecause future levels of fertility and mortality are inherently uncertain, the UN uses probabilistic methods to account for both the past experiences of a given country and the past experiences of other countries under similar conditions. ![]() The NFHS is a large, nationally representative household survey with more extensive information about childbearing than the census. Data on fertility and how it is related to factors like education levels and place of residence is from India’s National Family Health Survey (NFHS). The census has collected detailed information on India’s inhabitants, including on religion, since 1881. Population sizes over time come from India’s decennial census. The estimates produced by the UN are based on “all available sources of data on population size and levels of fertility, mortality and international migration.” ![]() This Pew Research Center analysis is primarily based on the World Population Prospects 2022 report by the United Nations.
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